Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The last persistent slab avalanche was observed on March 16th. The most suspect areas for triggering another slab avalanche would be located on the northern half of the compass,  in areas with a relatively shallow snowpack harboring weak faceted snow in the middle or bottom of the snowpack. Wet avalanche concerns from last week should be in the rearview mirror this weekend. Isolated exceptions would be areas where you find yourself sinking deeply into a wet snowpack. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–3

    In the Southeast Mountains, the last round of persistent slab avalanches occurred on March 16th. As snow surfaces refreeze following a week of warm weather, concerns for this problem on shoulder aspects will be even further reduced.  The most prominent weak layers are surface hoar buried a couple of feet deep and depth hoar near the ground.   Persistent slab avalanches can be remotely triggered from low-angle terrain and break deeper and wider than you might expect.   Triggered slab avalanches are unlikely on mid to low-elevation, southerly aspects, or areas where the snowpack is consistently deeper than 200 cm.  Slope angles consistently less than 30 degrees are a reliable way to avoid the problem.

    A large persistent slab on Mt. Crested Butte that ran on 3/16.  This slope is shallow, variable in depth, and on the north half of the compass: a combination of ingredients you want to avoid.  

    Photo: Zach Guy

Avalanche Discussion

Saturday is looking to be a transition day, from the previous wet avalanche concerns over the last week to new snow avalanche concerns developing on Sunday. Cloud cover should keep any wet loose avalanche concerns in the rearview mirror. Isolated concerns that could linger today, would be for areas that the snowpack hasn't had a chance to refreeze. Those areas would be identifiable as you would sink deeply into wet snow. At lower elevations the snowpack will be holding onto the heat that it absorbed yesterday, after cloud cover and a little bit of new snow, didn't let that heat escape last night in the form of long-wave radiation loss. A triggered avalanche in this type of snowpack would be a hybrid between a wet slab and a persistent slab avalanche. New snow avalanche concerns will be on the list for Sunday. 

The last persistent slab avalanches were observed on March 8th in the Northwest Mountains, and more recently on March 16th in the SE Mountains. Concerns for additional persistent slab avalanches have mostly been for areas with a relatively shallow snowpack where persistent weak layers have remained more pronounced. Many of those same areas have seen meltwater draining through the snowpack recently, and once that snowpack has a chance to refreeze we will no longer be dealing with this avalanche problem in those areas. An observer yesterday found an area with a wet snowpack producing shooting cracks down to moist facets. There are still a few isolated areas around Crested Butte where we could see similar conditions today once temperatures climb back above freezing. Those isolated conditions would be in areas where you find yourself sinking deeply into a wet snowpack, most likely on a shoulder aspect such as east or west, that also has persistent slab snowpack structure. 

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