Avalanche forecast

Blues

Wallowa Avalanche Center
View on map

Avalanche danger

Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Open full map
Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

New snow on a thick crust means new snow avalanches are possible. It is still possible to trigger an avalanche breaking 2-3' down in the snowpack. You are most likely to encounter these overlapping avalanche problems from 4000'-6000'. Avoiding terrain steeper than 30 degrees is advised.

This forecast is sponsored by La Grande Sno-Drifters Snowmobile Club.

 

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Throughout the work week, the Northern Blues have picked up around anywhere from 6-11"  of new snow.  This snow sits above a thick Rain Crust that was buried on February 1st.  

    As time progresses, the light new snow will settle into more of a slab and could become a bit more reactive.  During your travels today, I'd encourage you to dig multiple hand pits down to the Rain Crust to observe how well the new snow has bonded to the crust.   See if you can pick up a slab of snow. If you can hold it like a big ol' cheeseburger and take a bite out of it, you've got a storm slab.  If it just crumbles in your hands, then you should be thinking about the potential to trigger a Dry Loose Avalanche or "sluff" in steeper terrain.  Use small and inconsequential steeper test slopes no bigger than a two-story house to test the reactiveness of the new snow.  Ride your machine or boards over the test slope to see if you release small dry loose avalanches or more of a slab.  

    Dry Loose avalanches should be on the smaller side, but could still catch and drag you over consequential terrain such as cliffs and trees,  or into a gully where the consequences could be higher. 

    With a sunny day on tap, solar aspects may start to produce roller balls this afternoon as direct sun and the lack of cooling winds start to warm the snow surface.  If you find yourself on solar aspects in the afternoon and find yourself up to your boot tops in wet snow, it's time to find a shadier aspect!

    Dry Loose Avalanches triggered by Skiers.  

    Photo: Colorado Avalanche Information Center. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    We are still finding poor snowpack structure in the Blues, although it is unlikely you would trigger a persistent slab, it is not impossible.  We continue to be in the realm of the low-probability, high-consequence persistent slab problem.  Triggering one of these slides would have serious consequences. The November/December facets are capped by a thick crust, rounded, moist, and beginning to bond but are still substantially weaker than the snow above and below them. This creates the recipe for an avalanche. Snowpack tests on 2/7 confirm this. 

     

     

    (2/7/2024)

    Column failed 100cm down where the saw is stuck in the snow.

    Photo: Nick Burks

Avalanche Discussion

The Blues finally had a week of mostly below-freezing temperatures. A thick crust has formed. That thick crust is now covered by 6-10" of new snow. Unfortunately, the snowpack structure is still weak and a persistent slab avalanche could still be triggered.  The snowpack in the Blues is thinner than the other forecast areas. Because there is less "insulation" between the surface and these buried weak layers it is possible to affect these weak layers even through the thick crusts.

You can watch/read this observation for more details.

WAC Executive Director/Forecaster, Victor McNeil wrote this excellent Conditions Blog. It provides a great summary of conditions in January and what that means for the snowpack now in February.

Keep the observations coming!  Let us know what you are seeing in your travels by submitting an observation here.  

 

Regions covered