Avalanche forecast

Tetons

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

The avalanche danger will rise as the day warms and snow surfaces become wet. Wet snow avalanches may be triggered by humans or release naturally on steep, rocky slopes that face the sun. These slides can become large and destructive. Monitor the snow surface as the day warms and consider moving to shaded terrain, or exiting the mountains, if you are sinking into slushy snow. Terrain near or under cornices should be given a wide buffer.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Sunlit slopes may become unstable as the day heats up. Yesterday, wet loose avalanches were reported on very steep sunny slopes. These avalanches are possible again today. Wet loose avalanches begin at a "point", usually the base of a warm rock or tree, and fan out to collect snow as they move. They are most hazardous in confined terrain or on large slopes where they gather a lot of snow. So far, wet snow avalanches have been relatively small and easy to predict. However, melt-water is working its way down towards deeper weak layers during the heat of the day and putting wet slab avalanches on the radar. Steep and rocky south facing slopes are the first places that these avalanches might occur. Wet slabs are difficult to predict and can be large. 

    It is important to monitor the snow surface as the day heats up. Consider moving to shaded terrain, or exiting the mountains, if the snow surface becomes slushy and you are sinking past your ankles. Roller balls and small point releases are also signs that conditions are becoming unstable.

    A large wet loose avalanche that occurred in the afternoon on 3/15.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    Hard slabs 3-5 feet thick overlay weak snow that formed earlier in the season. Shallow, rocky, and unsupported terrain on the north half of the compass is where this problem is most likely to be found. Thin areas in the snowpack are more likely to act as trigger points and are most common in these locations. It is currently unlikely that a human would trigger one of these slabs. Larger triggers, like cornice fall or surface snow avalanches, still have the potential to impact weak layers buried deeply in the snowpack and initiate a much larger avalanche.

    Cornice Fall: Cornices have grown large and failures are possible, especially during the heat of the day. Givecornices a wide margin and avoid lingering under heavily corniced ridgelines. Cornice falls are the most likely way to trigger a very large persistent slab avalanche.

    (3/5/2024)

    Very large persistent slab avalanche that failed during the early March storm cycle. This terrain characterizes where this problem is most relevant. Very steep, unsupported slopes above cliffs. Also note the large cornices and potential trigger. 

    Photo: Dan Nagy

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday afternoon, temperatures at mid elevation weather stations rose to near 40 degrees Farenheit. Overnight lows dipped just below freezing. Skies will be clear today and temperatures are expected to rise well above freezing again. Wet avalanche problems are becoming more hazardous with each consecutive day of warming. Free water is working its way towards buried weak layers and may result in some surprising avalanche activity during the afternoon. Getting an early start and exiting the mountains before snow surfaces become dangerously wet is the best way to mitigate this hazard.

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