Avalanche forecast

San Francisco Peaks / Kachina Peaks Wilderness

Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

1:00 PM Update: Recent observations and shooting cracks (in new slabs) have raised the hazard to considerable for elevations above 11,000 feet.

Backcountry travelers are urged to carefully assess snow conditions above ~11,000 before stepping out into steep terrain. Travelers should exercise heightened caution near steep ridgelines, gullies, and convex rolls and retreat if any shooting cracks or collapsing snow is observed. KPAC encourages winter recreationists not to travel on or below cornices. 

As a reminder, our avalanche center is a nonprofit supported by the local community. Aid KPAC by entering our online Arizona Snowbowl Season Pass Raffle and show up to support KPAC next Saturday (4/6/2024) on the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Winds have moderated this morning, decreasing to velocities ideal for wind slab formation, and more snow is now available for transport. Yesterday's strong winds blew more snow off the mountain, rather than redeposit as reactive wind slabs. However, our observations were limited, and high elevations may harbor lingering reactive wind slabs in steep/extreme terrain. 

    KPAC advises backcountry travelers to anticipate new reactive wind/storm slabs and exercise caution, especially above and near treeline. You will decrease your avalanche danger dramatically by avoiding loaded avalanche starting zones, wind drifts, pillowed snow, and cornices. A valuable strategy for evaluating wind/storm slab hazards is to test small, inconsequential slopes, which can provide valuable insights into the reactivity of wind-packed snow on particular aspects and terrain features. 

    Cornices starting to form at the top of Snowslide Canyon Bowl. (3/30/2024) Photo: Max Campbell

Avalanche Discussion

Expect avalanche danger to steadily increase today as winds continue and more snow accumulates. 

Yesterday, on the north side of Fremont Peak, observations and instability tests noted increased strength and no propagation propensity. KPAC encountered no reactive wind slabs yesterday, but our observations were limited to the north side of Fremont Peak. There, we did encounter 10cm of wind-packed snow that was welded to the softer snow below and unreactive. We did note cornice formations near the top of Jay's slide and Snowslide Canyon Bowl. KPAC encourages winter recreationists not to travel on or below cornices. 

Currently, at the SNOTEL site in Snowslide Canyon, we are at 155% of the median snow water equivalent. In addition, we are over a week past the average point when our snowpack begins to decrease. Fortunately, that is not the case this year, and at least a few powder days are left. However, with this bonus comes increased avalanche danger. Keep a watchful eye, and don't let spring lull you into a false sense of security.

Recent snowpits can be found at https://snowpilot.org/snowpits/query?field_loaction_tid=4. The Snowpack is melting fast below 10000', especially on sunny slopes. 

Come join Kachina Peaks Avalanche Center on Saturday, April 6th, at the Agassiz Lodge deck for the Mikee Linville Fundraiser!  All proceeds from this event go to our scholarship fund, which, to date, has resulted in over 29K of scholarship benefits!  For more information on how to get involved, visit kachinapeaks.org.  Many thanks to everyone who made our avalanche courses a success this season, and a big thank you to all our participants! KPAC is especially grateful to our generous community. Your support makes avalanche forecasting and education possible in Northern Arizona. 100% of KPAC's funding comes from fundraisers, donations, and grants - your contribution matters!

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