Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

It's hard to tell how much avalanche activity there will be on Monday during this transition from wet, stormy weather to sunny skies and soaring freezing levels. Information at higher elevations is limited, but you could be surprised by triggering dry slab avalanches, so start on smaller slopes and test bonding between the new and old snow layers 1-2ft down before committing to steeper slopes. You can expect to see and be able to trigger wet avalanches, which will mainly exist on the southerly half of the compass. When in doubt, stick to lower angle terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Slab avalanches at mid and upper elevations could surprise you by taking you for a scary ride and killing you on Monday. We don't really know how reactive these slabs will be. If you choose to travel onto steep slopes, test smaller features before stepping out into larger terrain. When in doubt, avoid traveling onto slopes greater than 35°. If you choose to travel into steep terrain, stick to open slopes that don't funnel you into a gully, off a cliff, or into trees.   

    Whumphing, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches are signs that you may trigger an avalanche on steep nearby terrain. Some shadier or upper elevation locations may harbor buried surface hoar or weak facets, left over from New Year's. If you dig down you might find the layers, buried 1-2 ft beneath the surface at mid and upper elevations. Some of the slab avalanches from over the weekend (OBSERVATIONS) may have failed on this layer. We're unsure of its distribution on slopes, so it's best to stay conservative until more information is known. Especially when you transition from previously wet to dry snow layers just over 5000ft, thoroughly assess the snowpack before heading into steep terrain. 

    (1/4/2025)

    A large human triggered avalanche, which occurred in the Baker backcountry on Saturday. 

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Sunday was warm and wet, and natural wet loose avalanches happened at mid and lower elevations, on all aspects. Skies will clear overnight, but freezing levels will increase to 6500ft by Monday afternoon. Snow at lower elevations will probably remain wet and could produce wet avalanches on all aspects. As you climb higher, snow may have dried out a little on shady aspects, and avalanche activity is expected to mainly occur on steep slopes facing the sun. 

    If you see any rollerballs or wet avalanches fanning out, avoid traveling on nearby steep slopes or the lower angle terrain beneath those slopes.  If snow feels wet and heavy, or is punchy so that you're sinking in past your ankles, just avoid steep terrain nearby. Shift to shadier aspects which may not be so wet. 

    Snow at mid and lower elevations was already wetted from the previous day's storm so may not be as reactive on Monday. At higher elevations, previously dry snow may see more avalanches on Monday. 

    (2/16/2024)

    Example photo: Wet loose avalanches like you might see naturally occurring Monday on the southern half of the compass.

    Photo: Julz Holder - Grounding Truth

Avalanche Discussion

On Saturday, several backcountry travelers in the Baker backcountry reported triggering slab avalanches 6-12 inches deep (OBSERVATION). On Sunday, visibility improved and observers reported several natural avalanches (OBSERVATION). A few small human triggered avalanches were reported too. These were predominantly in the mid elevation band, but we suspect similar amounts of activity happened at upper elevations, where fewer people ventured. Meanwhile, snowmobilers on the south side of Baker tested steep slopes on Saturday and didn't trigger any avalanches. More snow fell further south, so that area may have seen more avalanche activity on Sunday. 

Snow surfaces will be highly variable on Monday. Expect wet, punchy snow at lower elevations. There's a chance a thin crust formed Sunday night. As you climb higher, steep sunny slopes will be soft, but crusts may exist on shady aspects. Elevations up to about 5200ft had wet surface layers on Sunday, but the snowpack is still dry beneath the new storm snow layer. 

If you make it into the backcountry, please share what you saw with us by submitting an obseration HERE or by using the Avy app. 

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