Avalanche forecast

Olympics

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 4 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Expect elevated avalanche danger near and shortly after rounds of more intense snowfall with danger easing during drier and calmer periods. You can trigger an avalanche near ridgelines as you move into drier snow. If you find cracking snow or larger pillow-shaped drifts in your terrain, navigate around and give extra space to steeper avalanche start zones.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    An active weather pattern keeps bringing in minor shots of rain/snow and wind. The incremental additions have increased the snowpack by about 6" since 1/5. Moderate (and frequently SE) winds have drifted the snow onto a variety of aspects. With one shot of moisture decreasing Saturday evening and another arriving on Sunday, it's essential to adjust to what the weather gives us during this difficult weather forecasting pattern. You'll probably find wet, sticky snow with minimal slab danger below 4500 ft. But as you travel toward ridgelines, note the character of the snow and use frequent small, convex, or wind-loaded test slopes to note the character of the slabs. If the snow becomes drier, expect the size of drifts to increase. Move into more sheltered areas or steer around steep slopes as you approach ridgelines or move into more widespread wind-affected snow above treeline. Wind lips and cornices grow in the direction of wind deposition. Scoured windward slopes make for safer travel and help you anticipate where the snow has been transport (on the opposite side of the ridge).  Steer around wind-loaded pillows and start zones steeper than 35 degrees.

    (1/6/2023)

    Current sculpture garden of wind lips and cornices.

    Photo: Kaitlin

Avalanche Discussion

An observation from a NE aspect near the treeline on Friday found 20" of snow above the Christmas crust. A subtle weak layer down 5 inches warrants quick hand pits and test slopes as you travel, but the remainder of the upper snowpack is right-side-up. NWAC professionals were in the Mt. Hood backcountry on Thursday. They observed rain up to 4000 ft turning to wet snow near 4800 ft and dry snow above around 5500 ft. Given the mild temperatures, there was minimal snow available for transport. Rainfall up to 5400 ft on Thursday likely formed a thin crust down 5-10" by Sunday.

Forecasting is a community effort and you can help. Please consider submitting an observation if you head out on Friday!

2022-2023 Forecast Schedule

NWAC will issue an avalanche forecast every Friday, Saturday and Sunday and every holiday mid-week day the Hurricane Ridge Road is open from December-early April.  We will issue Avalanche Watches or Warnings when conditions warrant.  New for this season, we will not update the non-holiday midweek discussion.  Our mountain weather forecasts will continue to cover the Olympics and are issued twice a day through late April.  If you have questions or feedback, please contact us at [email protected] and [email protected]

If you're out in the snow, share your observations with us and your local backcountry community.

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