Avalanche forecast

West Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Highlights

Several inches of rain are expected from Sunday night into Monday, with multiple roads already closed due to washouts and landslides. As heavy rain continues Monday, be prepared for additional non-avalanche hazards, especially more landslides. While the snowpack has mostly adapted to rain, a few inches of wind-drifted snow at the highest elevations could still be triggered if you manage to reach those areas.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    If you reach upper elevations, treat any newly wind-drifted snow on steep slopes with caution. A few inches of heavy, wind-affected snow may accumulate by Monday, and strong winds will concentrate it in gullies, along ridgelines, and around terrain features. This snow will likely sit on a firm crust, and bonding is uncertain. While cooling temperatures favor a right-side-up structure, wind redistribution may negate that benefit, allowing snow to slide easily on the crust.

    If you find new snow, check how well it’s bonded to the underlying layer. New snow totals will likely be in the range of a few inches, but small temperature changes could mean a much deeper layer of new snow at the highest elevations. Stick to firm surfaces and avoid steep, wind-loaded slopes where even a small slide could have serious consequences.

    Example photo: Wind could build up around features like rocky outcroppings, where you could trigger an avalanche on Monday in new snow at upper elevations. 

  • Glide Cracks

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    The snowpack at all elevations has already been heavily rained on, but more rain may cause a slight uptick in glide avalanches. Glides could be most active at mid-elevations, but rain reaching upper elevations could also trigger glide or other wet avalanches there. In any new snow that falls at upper elevations, small moist or wet loose avalanches might happen in that snow. 

    Minimize time beneath sagging cornices, wet snow-covered cliffs, and any slopes that look poorly attached. Glide avalanches can occur on slopes of any size, making this a low-likelihood but high-consequence hazard. During this prolonged wet weather, it’s best to avoid traveling below suspect slopes altogether.

    Example photo: beware of steep, cliffy areas as glide hazards exist here during this soggy weather on Monday.

Avalanche Discussion

Monday will be a dangerous day in the mountains. Even travel on roads or snow-free trails carries real risk, as ongoing rain and saturated ground make landslides likely during and after this storm. SR2 is cut off after Skykomish, and there are washouts on several Forest Service roads in the zone. Recent storms have caused devastating impacts in both the mountains and lowlands, and unfortunately, this event may not be over yet.

Be prepared to assess avalanche conditions yourself as you enter snow-covered terrain, since rainfall, snow totals, and temperatures can vary widely across the forecast zone. Over 4 inches of rain is expected through Monday, with cooler temperatures arriving Monday night and snow possibly returning to lower elevations soon. 

With the warm start to the 25-26 winter season, we have less snowpack information than usual to start daily forecast operations. For zones and elevation bands with less snow than needed for avalanche hazard, we will issue a forecast with No Rating. Anticipated avalanche and weather conditions will still be updated daily. NWAC will issue an avalanche danger rating for a zone when enough snow to produce avalanches has accumulated at middle and upper elevations.

Regions covered