Avalanche forecast

Hatcher Pass

Hatcher Pass Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

We are on the other side of a period of incremental snowfall to start 2026, which ended with a short but intense and wet storm on 1/16. 

The danger is MODERATE above 2500' for Persistent Slab avalanches, and a skier or rider could trigger Wind Slab avalanches near or above 3500'. The danger is LOW below 2500'. 

You could trigger an avalanche where recent winds have built thick drifts of new snow near ridgelines, in alpine bowls, or along the sides of cross-loaded gullies. It remains possible to trigger a thicker, more destructive slide on weak snow near the bottom of the snowpack. You're most likely to find trouble where the wind has stiffened the snow surface, or where the snowpack is generally shallow (less than about 2 feet). 

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

Thanks for all the public observations yesterday! Your public contributions are vital to the forecast. As a friendly reminder, we welcome both public and private observations.  You can always use the website's submission form, the AvyApp or email us at [email protected]. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Yesterday, strong East/Southeasterly winds blew most of the day on Hatch Peak. Winds blew more consistently here than on Marmot and the east side of the forecast area. 

    You are most likely to find fresh, reactive wind slabs in leeward, steep terrain as you climb in elevation. You are most likely to find trouble near ridgelines, alpine bowls, or along the sides of cross-loaded gullies. 

    Look for signs of wind transport such as freshly formed cornices, smooth pillows, lenses, or drifts of snow. Pole tests and hand pits are good tools to assess the upper snowpack, where you may find a stiff slab of snow over soft snow below. Shooting cracks are indicators that you have found sensitive wind slabs. 

    While less likely, it will be possible for a wind slab avalanche to "step down" to deeper, weak layers toward the bottom of the snowpack today. 

    As if we hadn't had enough weather: Hatch Peak gusted strong-extreme yesterday for most of the day while the eastern side of the forecast area had light gusting moderate winds below ridgetops. 

    Photo: Andy Paul

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

     

    Triggering a deeper avalanche up to 3' feet thick remains possible. You are most likely to trigger an avalanche where recent winds have stiffened the snow surface, or in shallow, rocky terrain. 

    We have seen the most natural and human activity in midslope terrain, where slabs of new January snow are cohesive but not as stiff as at ridgetops, and old, weak snow lurks below. Welcome back to our regularly scheduled programming at Hatcher Pass. The bad news? This large, weak snow near the ground is relatively widespread. The good news? Our mid and upper snowpack is largely cohesive and should be gaining strength following this storm. 

    • Avalanches will be more likely on slopes steeper than about 30 degrees. 
    • Small slides triggered in the new snow could step down into old buried weak layers, increasing avalanche size and consequence. 
    • Whumphing and collapsing of the snowpack are indications that there is weak snow failing near the ground. 
    • You may be able to trigger slides in gullies, alpine bowls, or on convex rolls where December's wind formed smooth, firm slabs over weak snow below.

    Use terrain to your advantage today: seek out areas with deeper snow and avoid likely start zones like large convexities, cliff bands or rocks. Use safe travel protocols: spot your partners and travel one at a time on suspect slopes.

    (1/17/2026) Andy Doughty (EARAC) 

    We are consistently getting easy propagation and failure on isolation in snowpits on multiple aspects where dense, new snow overlies weak, sugary facets and is just around a meter (3') deep. Several natural avalanches failed on 1/16 at this interface near the ground. 

    Photo: Andy Doughty

Avalanche Discussion

You prayed for snow, and we got it. Since January 11th, Hatcher Pass has received about 18" of snow and 3" of Snow Water Equivelent at mid elevations. The last storm brought warm temperatures and heavy snow with nearly 2" of SWE for ~8" of snow. While this second round came in with intense winds, the density of the snow allowed us to hold onto some and I am excited to say you can still see some coverage on windward aspects out there--a welcome shift from December. 

The observed rain line/crust was from 2700-3000'. Above that is generally right-side-up storm snow. The only catch is that this all sits on a 10 to 15" layer of weak, sugary junk (*not a technical snow term) at the bottom of the snowpack. The most recent atmospheric river underdelivered on its potential in terms of snow totals and with limited observations and a relatively small natural avalanche cycle, it was unclear how our snowpack would adjust to this new load. Yesterday proved to be more touchy than expected with relatively widespread shooting cracks, whumphing (see below; "recent avalanches") and small human-triggered avalanches on test slopes.

We expect our snow structure in Hatcher Pass to to continue to benefit from a period of warm, calmer conditions following the storm, but remember this: these types of persistent problems we are dealing with at the bottom of our snowpack will continue to lurk, and we will get less and less feedback on them as time goes on. In the mean time, use judgement when assessing and stepping into terrain by identifying runouts, terrain traps and spotting your partners. 

This setup requires a mindset shift: we are back to our classic Hatcher paradigm of a lingering poor structure near the ground as we slowly gain strength and stability in the upper snowpack.

RECENT AVALANCHES:

Forecasters and the public observed widespread natural wind slab, persistent slab and wet avalanches throughout the forecast area on multiple aspects. These occurred sometime during the storm on 1/16 when new snow, water weight and wind overwhelmed our weak snowpack structure. Several of these failed near the ground on depth hoar. None of these natural avalanches were larger than D1.5. Note that visibility has been relatively poor since 1/16--there are likely more than we have reported so far. See photos below. Read all observations here.  Notable slides:

  • Divide Ridge 
  • Arkose 1, 5
  • Stairstep/Punk Spines
  • 4068 near Women's Run

On Saturday, January 17th, a party reportedly triggered an avalanche midslope on the N side of 4068. They confirmed on the public radio channel that no one was caught, carried, or buried. Due to declining visibility yesterday, forecasters were not able to get eyes on this human-triggered slide. As a friendly reminder, we welcome both public and private observations.  You can always use the website's submission form, the AvyApp or email [email protected].

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