Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Conditions become more dangerous as you climb into windy upper elevation terrain. You can reduce the odds of triggering a large avalanche by avoiding slopes with stiff, wind-drifted snow at the surface. Triggering a huge, 3-6 foot thick slab avalanche is unlikely but not out of the question. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Recent strong winds formed hard and soft slabs up to 3 feet thick in upper and some middle elevation locations. Watch for smooth pillows, dunes, and large wind features below ridgelines and cornices, on the sides of cross-loaded gullies, and below large cliff faces and couloirs in the craggy Sawtooth Mtns. Hard slabs may feel hollow and sound like a drum as you move across them. 

    How can we manage this problem? Fortunately, the fresh wind slabs are easy to spot and avoid. If you feel the surface snow getting stiffer, it's time to stick to gentler slopes. Cracks shooting out from your skis or sled are an obvious sign that you've found a wind slab. Hard wind slabs behave unpredictably; they can break above you and wider than expected. 

    (12/18/2025) Natural wind slab avalanches on a NE-facing slope near 8900' on Copper Mountain. Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–3

    The highest odds of triggering Persistent Slab avalanches lies where you find concerning buried layers AND significant recent wind-loading. Weeks of snowfall, rain, and warm temperatures formed thick, dense slabs on most middle and upper elevation slopes. Multiple crusts and storm interfaces are buried in the upper 3 feet of the snowpack on many slopes, providing possible failure layers. 

    Triggering a large slide in windy or sheltered terrain is unlikely but not off the table. Assume the slab + potential weak layer setup exists on all slopes until you dig in the snow to prove otherwise. If you do trigger an avalanche, you probably won't experience obvious signs of instability—like snowpack collapsing or cracks shooting out from your skis or sled—beforehand. 

    As you change elevation and aspect, or travel through different drainages, you'll see significant variability in the buried crusts and storm interfaces. This uncertainty makes it challenging to accurately predict which slopes could still cause trouble. 

    Additional Discussion: Weak, sugary, faceted snow near the bottom of the snowpack is now buried 4-8 feet deep on W-NW-N-NE-E-SE facing slopes at middle and upper elevations. Triggering a huge slide on these layers is unlikely but would be unsurvivable. The best chance of poking this beast lies in windy and/or rocky areas where the snowpack depth is variable, and near the mouths of the drainages near Smiley Creek.  

    (12/23/2025) A large natural avalanche on a N/NE facing slope at 9300' in the western Smoky Mtns. Photo: Jeremy Lato

Avalanche Discussion

Yesterday, strong wind made conditions downright unpleasant in upper elevation terrain on Copper Mountain just north of this zone. Above about 8500', surface conditions changed dramatically: hard slabs, scoured slopes, and overbuilt wind whales and features became common. The snowpack could behave unpredictably once you enter windier environments. 

You may want to be a little more cautious if you are playing in the thinner snowpacks in the headwaters of the Salmon River and Frenchman Ck drainages, near the mouths of Smiley and Beaver Ck, and on the eastern front of the Sawtooth Mtns. In these areas, there's a better chance recent winds loaded some slopes enough to keep the waning Persistent Slab problem alive. 

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