Avalanche forecast

Turnagain Pass and Girdwood

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

A poor snowpack structure is fairly consistent across the advisory area.  While natural avalanches are unlikely across most of the advisory area today, human triggered avalanches will be easier to initiate in zones such as Girdwood and Portage Valley that have recieved more snow and wind this week.   Minimize your exposure to consequential terrain when choosing where to ski or ride.  Lastly, if you are getting out in the backcountry today keep an eye on your partners and the potential for cold injuries.  

Ice Climbers in Portage Valley - The combination of recent snowfall and gap winds yesterday has us heads up for the potential of natural avalanches in Portage Valley. Ice climbers in this area should carefully consider overhead hazards, as a natural avalanche could run into lower elevations, affecting ice climbing routes.

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The National Weather Service has issued a cold weather advisory in effect until 4pm today for very cold temperatures as low as 20 to 35 degrees below zero.

Please join CNFAC lead forecaster and local snow-lebrity Andrew Schauer at the Girdwood Brewing Company tonight for our second 'Forecaster chat'  of the season! The event is free to the public and will kick off at 6:00 pm. Grab a beverage and tune in for a talk on the state of our local snowpack!   More info here.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2.5

    Recent avalanches: There were a few reports of shallow natural avalanches in the Girdwood Valley yesterday, large enough to bury a person.  These likley failed toward the tail end of Tuesday's storm.  There have also been several observations of large collapses in the treeline elevation band from 1000' to 2500' across the advisory area. In the Snug Harbor zone (outside of this advisory area), we observed a snowmachine-triggered wind slab yesterday afternoon.

    The liklihood of triggering avalanches today will depend on what areas have seen the most wind and snow over the past 48 hrs.  Based soley on Tuesday storm totals, Girdwood, and Portage Valley recieved notably more snow than Turnagain Pass; 13" at Alyeska mid station (1,700') versus 7" at Center Ridge (1,880').   A skier or snowmachiner will be more likely to trigger an avalanche where a deeper slab (more snow/ wind) has formed over weak facets, buried 1-2' deep.  In areas that recieved less snow and wind since Tuesday's storm, such as the core Turnagain Pass area, human-triggered avalanches will be less likely and smaller.  

    It'll be important today to evaluate snow and terrain carefully and identify any features of concern, such as wind-loaded convexities/ terrain traps.  Keep your consequences in mind if you're committing to travel on a particular slope.  You can always stick to low angle, simple terrain to completely avoid this avalanche problem.  Even a small avalanche involvement could become a much bigger deal given the extreme cold temperatures today. 

    Given the cold temps and relatively shallow seasonal snowfall, the majority of our snowpack is made up of weak, faceted snow.  Pictured here are 1 to 2 mm facets sitting just below a crust in a snowpit at 2,200' on Tincan yesterday.  This setup is widespread throughout the forecast area.

    Photo: Mary Gianotti

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Tuesday's snowfall was atypical for the Chugach and Kenai mountains in terms of colder than normal temps and low snow densities.  This ultra low-density snow is a joy to play in but it doesn't take much wind to transport it into fresh wind slabs.  These tend to form along ridgelines and convexities and are likely to be in the 1-2' range.  Red flags you should key into include travelling over stiffer snow, recent avalanche, shooting cracks, or whumpfing in the snowpack.  The latter two can be observed from simple, flat terrain and are obvious signs that wind slabs are sensitive to human triggers.

    Dry loose avalanches (sluffs) were observed in steeper terrain yesterday given the very low-density storm snow.  These were generally not large enough to bury a person but can be large enough to knock a skier off their feet or push someone into a terrain trap. 

    (1/7/2026)

    In areas seeing active wind transport of  Tuesday's low density snow, human triggered avalanches will be more sensitive today.  Photo: Lost Lake zone on Wednesday Jan.7th.  Note: we expect to begin forecasting for the Seward region this weekend.

    Photo: Graham Predeger

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