Avalanche forecast

Summit Lake

Chugach National Forest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 8 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering an avalanche up to 1' deep on a buried weak layer is most likely on slopes that have received 6"+ of new snow or in wind-loaded areas at upper elevations near ridgelines or convex rolls. Where only a few inches of new snow have fallen in the past few days, triggering an avalanche will be less likely but still possible. With our current snowpack setup, remote triggering an avalanche from low-angle terrain onto an adjacent steeper slope is common. Sticking to low-angle terrain and avoiding terrain traps - where even a small avalanche can have high consequences - are good practices to limit your exposure to this hazard. 

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SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENTS:

The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the East Turnagain Arm, Turnagain Pass, and the Kenai Peninsula.

Our second Forecaster Chat of the season is coming up this Thursday, Jan. 8 at the Girdwood Brewery. The event is free, and the show will start at 6:00 pm. Come on down! More info here.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Recent avalanches: The most recent reported avalanche in the Summit Lake area was on Tenderfoot Ridge on December 28th. Several human-triggered avalanches were observed in Turnagain Pass last Wednesday, many of which were triggered remotely. 

    The snowfall that started yesterday has added about 4 to 8" of very low-density snow (0.2 to 0.5" water) to the snowpack, with the most new snow in Girdwood and Summit Lake. Anchorage has been the real winner in this storm, with about 15" of new snow at Indian Pass SNOTEL so far (1" water) and more on the way today. Girdwood could also see another 4 to 6" (0.25 to 0.5" water) of low-density snow today, with areas on the Kenai Peninsula expected to get an additional 2 to 4" of snowfall (0.1 to 0.25" water).

    This new snow is falling onto a shallow and weak snowpack, with several layers of facets that formed during the prolonged cold snap in December and early January. Even though this storm has not added a huge amount of weight to the snowpack, we expect natural avalanches to be possible and human-triggered avalanches to be likely today on faceted snow about a foot deep. These could fail on facets under a crust (ice crust at lower elevations and wind crust at higher elevations), or on weak faceted snow that was on the surface prior to this latest storm. These weak layers are widespread throughout the Summit Lake area. 

    (1/5/2026)

    Upper elevation snowpit showing new snowfall over weak facets.

    Photo: Marc Heifetz

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Average wind speeds have been light so far during this storm, ranging from 5 to 15 mph, but gusts up to 40 mph at upper elevations are enough to move this low-density snow into wind slabs on leeward slopes. These wind-loaded slopes could be sensitive to human-triggered avalanches up to 1' deep today. Triggering a small wind slab could be enough to cause a larger avalanche on a deeper weak layer (problem 1). 

Regions covered