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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2016–Jan 15th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

We're dealing with a complex snowpack at the moment. Now is a good time to make conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Friday: No precipitation is expected, strong easterly outflow winds and -2 to -5 at treeline. Saturday: Snowfall starting over night with accumulations of between 5 and 10cm throughout the day, -5 to -10 at treeline, moderate southerly winds. Sunday: Light snow in the morning becoming intermittent flurries by the afternoon, - 5 at treeline, light to moderate southeasterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

We've receive sporadic reports of natural, explosive, skier remote and skier triggered avalanches ranging from size 1-2 from across the region through the week. Shooting cracks are being observed wherever the recent storm snow is starring to slab up. We haven't had any recent reports of these surface avalanches steeping down to any of the deeper week layers, although the potential for this to happen could still be there.

Snowpack Summary

We're dealing with a complex snow pack with multiple buried weak layers in the top meter. Between 15 and 35cm of new snow now is settling into a soft slab that sits above a widespread layer of surface hoar. Moderate southerly winds have loaded lee features. Snowpack tests have been producing easy failures on this layer, especially in places where the surface hoar is sitting on firm, previously wind affected snow. Below this you can find up to 3 other distinct buried weak layers of surface hoar, faceted snow, or thin sun crusts. These deeper weak interfaces continue to produce variable results in snowpack tests. Although they appear to be gaining strength they're worth keeping on your radar; especially in the thinner snowpack areas in the east of the region.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.