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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 8th, 2014–Jan 9th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Moderate snowfall overnight Wednesday should ease to light accumulations on Thursday / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 800mFriday: Light to moderate snowfall overnight Thursday should ease to flurries during the day on Friday / Strong to extreme southwest winds / Freezing level at 900mSaturday: Heavy to very heavy snowfall overnight Friday will continue throughout Saturday morning / Moderate to extreme southwest winds becoming northwest in the afternoon / Freezing level at 1200m falling to valley bottom throughout the day

Avalanche Summary

2 size 2 slab avalanches (human triggered and natural) were observed in Marriott Basin in the Duffey Lake area over the last few days. No injuries were reported. The avalanches occurred around 2100m on south-facing terrain. Both were thought to have ran on a crust/facet interface. Check out our Incident Report Database for more details. No other recent avalanches have been reported.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths at treeline range from 130-170 cm in the South of the region, and from 80- 130 cm in the North of the region. Light amounts of new snow overlie a variety of old surfaces which may include surface hoar in sheltered terrain, wind-pressed snow in exposed areas, or a melt-freeze crust on previously sun-exposed slopes.In the north of the region, recent storm snow is sitting on a weak layer of buried surface hoar which formed in early December. Facets from December's cold snap also seem fairly widespread in this part of the region. In some areas, these facets may co-exist with a crust in the mid pack. In shallow snowpack areas, the facets may exist at ground level. These persistent weaknesses may likely wake-up with new snow forecast for the rest of the week.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.