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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2014–Jan 6th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Confidence

Fair - Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Wednesday

Weather Forecast

Monday: Very Strong Westerly winds overnight becoming strong Southwest during the day. Cloudy with very light precipitation. Above freezing layer from 1500 metres to 2000 metres during the day.Tuesday: Moderate to strong Southwest winds with light precipitation and freezing levels lowering to about 500 metres.Wednesday: A trough is expected to move onto the coast on Wednesday, models disagree on timing of this next storm.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity reported.

Snowpack Summary

In general the snowpack seems shallower and more faceted in the northern part of the region, and deeper with more wind and storm slab problems in the south. Isolated pockets of wind slab were reported due to recent moderate to strong Northwest winds. A new layer of surface hoar has developed below about 1100 metres. At 1900 metres elevation on an East aspect in the Shames area the height of snow was 193 cm. The recent storm snow has settled into about a 25 cm layer that is sitting above several laminated thin melt/freeze crusts. Moderate sudden planar shears were experienced in snowpack tests down about 40 cm in a weak facet layer that is sitting above a melt/freeze crust from Christmas. Deeper early December facetted crystals were found to be rounding and gaining strength in this area.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.