Avalanche Forecast

Partial clearing Saturday night along with cool temperatures, should allow any moist to wet snow to re-freeze and form a thin crust layer, especially near and below treeline on all but steep northerly facing terrain. 

The next frontal precipitation is expected to arrive late Sunday morning and gradually increase along with ridgetop winds through the afternoon. Shallow new wind slabs may become locally sensitive in areas that receive rapid accumulations Sunday afternoon.  

Recent winds have been mostly S-SE, so firmer wind slab should be found mainly on W-N-SE slopes near and above treeline. Expected increasing winds Sunday should be similar, mostly southerly.

Recent cornices are very large. Make sure to avoid areas on ridges where there may be an overhanging cornice as well as travel on steep slopes below cornices! Natural cornice releases and resulting slab avalanches are unpredictable. See a blog post regarding cornices here.

Weather and Snowpack 

The first week of March saw a very active winter weather pattern with deep snow accumulations, followed by periods of heavy rain in the second week of March. This caused significant avalanche cycles in most areas March 9-10. Significant snowpack consolidation occurred over this period due to rainfall and warmer temperatures. 

Another strong low pressure system brought several inches of rain to the west slopes of the Olympics and Cascades on Friday, 3/17 through early Saturday morning 3/18. Rapid cooling later Saturday morning was followed by generally light snow showers with little in the way of new snow accumulation. The rain event 3/18-19 has formed a very strong crust layer, now buried by this past weeks storm snow, generally 15-20 inches in the Hurricane Ridge area.

During this past week, weaker fronts crossed the Northwest on Tuesday and Wednesday at moderate snow levels. Sustained moderate winds out of the S-SE on Thursday and Friday continuously transported shallow and recent fresh snowfall in the Hurricane Ridge area. Snow showers Saturday deposited several more inches of new snow as of Saturday afternoon.  

Recent Observations

NWAC pro-observer, Matt Schonwald was in the Hurricane Ridge area Thursday afternoon. Moderate S-SE winds were quickly building fresh 10-12" wind slab on lee aspects and scouring windward aspects to the most recent rain crust. Wind slabs near treeline were becoming increasingly sensitive by the end of the day. New cornice formation was occurring along ridgelines. 

Matt was back in the Hurricane Ridge area on Friday. Hurricane Ridge continues to live up to its name because the wind was again the main story with fresh wind slab becoming deeper and more sensitive on lee slopes which included some westerly slopes near treeline. Fresh and large cornices were also building and deemed likely to fail. All wind loaded avalanche terrain was avoided. Generally shallow, loose wet avalanches occurred below treeline on solar aspects until the cloud cover increased late morning.