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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 9th, 2017–Mar 10th, 2017

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Mt Hood.

Due to the potential for very large avalanches in specific areas following Thursday's complex storm, travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on Friday. Allow the recently stressed snowpack time to settle and stay out of consequential terrain. 

Detailed Forecast

Snow levels should peak around 8000 feet Thursday evening and be followed by a slow cool down with quickly diminishing shower activity on Friday. W-SW winds will stay very strong through Friday morning.

With a complex weather pattern afflicting the Cascades and Mt. Hood Thursday and Thursday night and stressing our deep storm snow received over the last week, travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended on Friday. Allow the recently stressed snowpack time to settle and avoid consequential terrain. Realize that very large avalanches are possible if initially small avalanches step down to deep and lingering storm instabilities or if a large natural trigger like a cornice collapse occurs. 

Deep wind slab should be suspected on all aspects near and above treeline but most likely found on NW to SE aspects due to recent SW to W winds. Watch for firmer wind transported snow on varied aspects especially in areas of complex terrain.

Loose wet avalanches that begin small may become large by entraining deeper layers. Large wet slab avalanches will be possible in isolated areas due to the significant rainfall received Thursday and Thursday night.  

Cornices won't be listed as an avalanche problem but avoid travel on ridges near where cornices may have formed and avoid steep slopes below cornices that may fail at any time. Cornices have been reported as large and in charge in many areas. They will have likely been weakened during the recent storm cycle becoming more likely to fail. 

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

The most recent wet warm storm arrived on Valentines Day 2/14 and formed the uppermost very strong rain crust in our snowpack. This crust may be a bed surface for very large avalanches during the current storm cycle. 

Strong southwest flow carried a strong front across the Northwest on Friday evening March 3rd. At Mt Hood this caused strong southwest alpine winds, heavy, moist, dense new snow above about 4000 ft and wet snow or rain below about 4000 ft.

NWAC stations at Mt Hood received about 4 ft of snow earlier this week. A strong warm frontal system brought several inches of water, first as snow and then as rain into the alpine of Mt. Hood on Thursday. SW winds were routinely gusting above 100 mph at the Cascade Express station at Mt. Hood Meadows Wednesday night and Thursday.  

Recent Observations

The Meadows patrol on Tuesday morning reported strong winds and heavy snowfall but with limited avalanches. Upside down wind slab layers were building with lots of snowpack cracking and whoomping due to wind slab on ridges. Patrollers released 2 sensitive cornices remotely.

Warming, strong W-SW winds, and rainfall following heavy snowfall Tuesday caused a very large natural avalanche cycle according to the Mt. Hood Meadows pro-patrol by early Wednesday morning. Control work on Wednesday reported widespread large avalanches triggered with explosives releasing within the new storm snow. Cornices along ridges have become very large. 

On Thursday, rainfall was beginning to saturate the upper snowpack with un-supportive wet snow allowing several feet of boot penetration by mid-day. 

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.