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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2014–Jan 30th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Overnight and Thursday: A few cm are expected overnight, ending by early morning. Expect 3-5 cm near the coast and 1-3 cm inland. Moderate Northerly winds are forecast with strong Northeast outflow winds developing during the day. Freezing levels should drop down to valley bottoms.Friday: Mostly sunny with light Northwest winds and strong Northeast outflow winds in the major valleys. Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with alpine temperatures dropping to about -15 C. Continued outflow winds.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported.

Snowpack Summary

The inversion broke down a little earlier than forecast in the interior, resulting in a solid melt-freeze crust that now has a layer of surface hoar above; even on southerly aspects. Forecast new snow amounts are only a couple of cm, so this layer may not get buried deep enough to persist through the next period of high pressure. If we get more snow than forecast expect the crust/surface hoar combination to be a very easy sliding layer. The deep persistent layer of weak facets continues to be a concern in shallow snowpack areas, however the re-frozen upper snowpack may make triggering less likely.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.