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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2019–Mar 21st, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Natural avalanche activity is possible especially on sun exposed slopes in the afternoon. Cornices are soft and weak. Avoid travel under, on or anywhere near cornices.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY: A mix of sun and cloud. Freezing levels 2800 m on the Coquihalla and 1600 m on the Duffy. Alpine temperatures near +5 degrees. Ridgetop winds light from the southeast.FRIDAY: Cloudy. Freezing levels and alpine temperatures are the same as Thursday. Ridgetop winds light from the southeast.SATURDAY: Cloudy with light precipitation (5-10 mm) falling as rain at treeline and below treeline and snow in the alpine. Freezing levels 1500 m and alpine temperatures falling to -2. Ridgetop winds light from the South.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, a few natural loose wet avalanches were reported from steep solar slopes. On Tuesday, a natural loose wet avalanche cycle continued on sunny aspects (SE-W) up to size 3, some of these triggered thin slabs. On shady aspects (NW-NE) some slabs up to size 2 ran naturally. The crowns were 30-40 cm deep and we suspect they ran on a facet layer that developed during the cold spell in February.With continued warming it's worth reminding ourselves that glide cracks are to be avoided at all times. They're incredibly unpredictable and when they fail, they often fail big. Glide avalanche concerns are especially important to consider in the Coquihalla area. A recent social media post from a professional in this part of the region does a great job of highlighting the issue. (Link here) A glide failed naturally on a southeast facing slope around 1000 m on Saturday.We suspect that natural avalanche activity will slowly decrease as temperatures drop over the weekend.

Snowpack Summary

Snow surfaces are highly variable. On higher elevation north aspects (above 1900 m) you may find dry, faceted snow. Some of this has been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds, potentially creating some unusual wind slabs. On solar aspects (East, South, West) moist snow exists creating melt-freeze conditions at higher elevations and mostly just melt conditions below treeline. The bigger questions are deeper in the snowpack. Down 40-60 cm below the melt-freeze crust on solar aspects and the wintery snow on the polar aspects sits the February facet interface. The warm temperatures will continue to penetrate deeper and destabilize the snowpack. Its hard to say how many hot days and warm nights it will it take to wake up the more deeply buried weak layers that we haven't thought about in a long time.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.