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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 18th, 2019–Mar 19th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Persistent warm temperatures are penetrating and destabilizing the upper snowpack. Natural avalanche activity is likely. Pay attention to sunny slopes and avoid travel under avalanche paths especially slopes with cornices overhead.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Hot and sunny with freezing levels through the roof! No significant change during the forecast period. Very little temperature driven overnight re-freeze is expected. TUESDAY: Mostly clear skies and freezing levels holding strong above 3200 m. Alpine temperatures near + 7.0 degrees with a light southeast breeze at ridgetop. Alpine temperatures may drop to + 4.0 degrees overnight.WEDNESDAY: Repeat. Sunny skies with freezing levels above 3200 m. Alpine temperatures +7.0 degrees with light southeast ridgetop winds. Freezing levels may drop to 800 m overnight.THURSDAY: Sunny with some cloudy periods. Alpine temperatures near + 7.0 degrees and freezing levels 2800 m during the day.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, numerous natural avalanches were reported up to size 2.5 in the Duffey Lake area and avalanches were reported on solar aspects up the Railroad/Hurley Pass. In the southern part of the region (Coquihalla) numerous loose wet avalanches were reported up to size 1.5 from solar aspects and widespread snowballing was seen on the northerly aspects. As we enter a period of increased warming it's worth reminding ourselves that glide cracks are to be avoided at all times. They're incredibly unpredictable and when they fail, they often fail big. Glide avalanche concerns are especially important to consider in the Coquihalla area. A recent social media post from a professional in this part of the region does a great job of highlighting the issue. (Link here) A glide failed naturally on a southeast facing slope around 1000 m on Saturday.We suspect natural avalanche activity will persist with the sunny skies and warming temperatures throughout the forecast period.

Snowpack Summary

Light amounts of new snow have been redistributed by southwesterly and northerly winds, potentially creating some unusual wind slabs, including on south-facing slopes. Beneath this recent snow you may find hard wind-affected snow at higher elevations, soft and faceted snow in shaded and sheltered areas, and melt-freeze crusts on southerly slopes. Currently, the snowpack is complex and with the continued warming and little overnight re-freeze we're very concerned about the upper 10 to 40 cm of snow that sits on a mix of facets and crust.The bigger questions are deeper in the snowpack. With little overnight re-freeze the warm temperatures will penetrate deeper allowing melt and a lot of water which will lubricate the upper snowpack. It also allows the upper snowpack to start creeping downhill at an accelerated rate. Its hard to say how many hot days and warm nights it will it take to wake up the more deeply buried weak layers that we haven't thought about in a long time. We're not sure, but now is probably a time to let the mountains do their thing from afar and check back in when the freezing levels return to seasonal norms which could happen by next weekend.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.