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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 26th, 2018–Dec 27th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

For the north of the region, be diligent around treeline, where a buried weak layer still lingers. See the forecaster's blog here, which describes this persistent problem.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear skies in the north of the region and mostly cloudy in the south, freezing level below valley bottom.THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate northwest winds, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level below valley bottom.FRIDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, light to moderate west winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level below valley bottom.SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 to 15 cm, strong southwest winds, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Reports are limited, but no avalanches were observed in the region on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

5 to 10 cm of snow fell on Wednesday, covering what is reported to be a widespread weak layer of feathery surface hoar. Below this, about 30 cm of recent storm snow sits on a melt-freeze crust below around 1800 m. Reports are limited, but they suggest that the snow is bonding well to the crust.In the north portion of the region and possibly the far south, a weak layer of facets and surface hoar lies below all this storm snow, around 100 to 150 cm deep. The weak layer appears most prominent around treeline, up to 2000 m. There has not been reports of avalanche activity on this layer for 5 days. Although this layer is likely gaining strength, field observations show that slab avalanches remain possible on this layer where it exists.Near the base of the snowpack, a crust exists with weak and sugary facets beneath it. This could potentially still be of concern in high north-facing aspects where the snowpack rests on very smooth ground cover. A very large trigger, such as a cornice fall, would likely be needed to form an avalanche on this layer.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.