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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 23rd, 2019–Jan 24th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

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The Bottom Line: UPDATED: We increased the avalanche danger below treeline. Cooler temperatures allowed more snow than rain in some areas of the below treeline band. This has created more dangerous avalanche conditions in these locations. 

New and thick storm slabs should form overnight and into the morning as a moisture-laden winter storm impacts the West - Central region. You will be most likely to trigger avalanches in locations above the overnight rain/snow line where more than 8 inches of snow accumulated, or the wind drifted the snow to greater depths. You can avoid triggering an avalanche by staying away from open slopes greater than 35 degrees.

Snow and Avalanche Discussion

A winter storm is impacting the West-North area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. We don’t know whether the impressive forecasted ~1.5” of overnight snow water equivalent will materialize. We expect avalanche danger to peak overnight during the heaviest precipitation and warmest temperatures which are expected to occur Tuesday night. Avalanche danger should then slowly decrease throughout the day as precipitation ends and temperatures cool.  However, avalanche danger may increase locally during periods of heavier snowfall under an anticipated convergence zone which may develop near or north of Stevens Pass.

Two small skier triggered avalanches were reported to the north of this zone in the Mt Baker backcountry Tuesday. These small slides highlight the presence of a firm crust below the recent snow. Avalanches Wednesday could slide on this old crust allowing them to run farther and faster.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.