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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2017–Dec 16th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Confidence

Moderate - Sparse alpine data

Travel/Terrain Advice

New snow and wind load on the old snow surface and how well that new load is bonding to that surface will be the question this weekend. Use caution when changing aspects and elevation bands and be aware of any loaded slopes, especially if there is a crust under that load. Take note if temperatures begin to rise in the afternoon as that may increase the load on the slope.

Past Weather

A large high pressure ridge has dominated the the province for the last several days producing a very stable weather pattern with little to no precipitation, light to moderate SE through SW winds and temperatures ranging from -5oC to +15oC. Freezing levels throughout this period have been unseasonably high.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches observed.

Snowpack Description

Surface - Crust forming overnight from cooling but becoming moist and unsupportive in the afternoon on all aspects and elevations. Upper - Snow is beginning to warm, continues to settle and bond to rain crusts that were formed and buried in November. Mid - Well settled. Lower - Well settled.

Weather Forecast

A change is in the air for BC. A Pacific warm front will reach the BC coast by Saturday bringing with it moderate precipitation and light to moderate winds in a westerly flow. Mixing of lower layers of atmosphere should mean a reprieve from the fog and temperature inversion. Fri - 0.5-7 mm of precipitation. Winds light to moderate W to NW Freezing levels of 480-2000 m Sat - 8-25 mm of precipitation. Winds light to moderate NW to SW Freezing levels of 700-2200 m Sun - 2-10 mm of precipitation. Winds light to moderate WSW Freezing levels of 750-2200 m

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.