Regions
Vancouver Island.
Confidence
Moderate- no alpine snow pack observations and most obs limited to Eastern Central Vancouver Island
Travel/Terrain Advice
Remember to check that avalanche safety equipment is in proper working order and don't just jump right back into the GNAR. With early season conditions and forecasted warming numerous hazards like creeks, rock and stumps will become a real concern. Even small loose wet avalanches have the force to push one into terrain traps below. Avoid exposing yourself above terrain traps like depressions, cliffs, trees. Avoid exposure to large alpine avalanche paths in all elevation bands. Very large wet slab avalanches have the potential to reach into below tree line.
Past Weather
The eastern island has seen minimal precipitation, light winds and cool temperatures. Precipitation totals are slightly greater for western regions of the forecast area. Freezing levels across the forecast region have ranged from sea level to 1000 m.
Avalanche Summary
A few very small soft slab avalanches were observed Saturday morning in the freshly fallen snow, both by ski cut and natural triggering on SW-NE aspects at tree line. Skiing and sledding in steep unsupported terrain below and at tree line produced no results on Sunday on SW-NE aspects.
Snowpack Summary
Surface- New light snow 30-40 cm
Upper- Numerous supportive rain crusts exist in the upper snow pack.
Mid- Well settled
Lower- Well settled.
Weather Forecast
Temperatures and freezing levels will take a dramatic jump up (potential freezing levels of up to 3600m) starting Tuesday with an approach of a large high pressure system.
Mon- 0 cm to a trace of new snow. Winds light to mod NW
Freezing level to 0-1200m.
Tues- no new snow. Winds light NW switching to light SE
Freezing level to 500-2700m
Wed- No new snow. Winds light SE
Freezing level to 1200-3600 m.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.