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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 13th, 2021–Apr 14th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Columbia.

Strong solar radiation and warm temperatures will weaken cornices and the snowpack. Avoid overhead hazard, especially in the afternoon. The danger rating is for the hottest time of the day. Check out this blog on warming and how to stay safe.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure over the province continues to bring sunny, dry weather. Freezing levels are forecast to steadily rise through the week.

Tuesday night: Clear, moderate northeast wind, alpine low -10 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Wednesday: Sunny, strong east wind, alpine high +6 C, freezing level 2400 m.

Thursday: Sunny, moderate easterly wind, alpine high +10 C, freezing level 2700 m.

Friday: Sunny, light northeast wind, alpine high +11 C, freezing level 3000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported since the weekend. Wind slabs were reactive over the weekend, several natural and ski cut size 1-1.5 and a few size 2 were observed on Saturday and Sunday. On Friday, most activity in the recent snow was limited to loose dry sluffing.

A couple of recent natural cornice failures size 2.5 did not trigger slabs on slopes below. One triggered small slab avalanches.

Neighboring Glacier National Park reported a few very large (size 3-4) glide slab releases on Thursday. Glide slabs are hard to predict and can release at any time, so it is important to avoid slopes with glide cracks.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface consists of a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects and all aspects below 1800 m. Dry snow can still be found on northerly aspects at treeline and in the alpine. 20-40 cm of well-settled recent snow has been wind affected at upper elevations. On North aspects in the alpine, the recent snow sits on dry wintery snow surfaces and possibly surface hoar on wind-sheltered slopes. Elsewhere, it sits on a series of melt-freeze crusts on all aspects below 1900 m and southerly aspects to mountain top. Reports indicate snow is bonding well at these interfaces.

The recent warm weather is expected to have helped old persistent weak layers heal, including a few crusts buried over the last month as well as a facet layer 150 cm deep from the mid-February cold snap. With each day of warm weather the likelihood of persistent slab avalanches might increase slightly. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Use extra caution around cornices: they are large, fragile, and can trigger slabs on slopes below.
  • Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Small avalanches can have serious consequences in extreme terrain. Carefully evaluate your line for wind slab hazard before you commit to it.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.