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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 17th, 2021–Nov 18th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Seems like the storm slabs are healing with the cooling temperatures, but I would give it a bit more time before I jumped into anything big and steep!

Weather Forecast

Continuing cool temps with isolated flurries

Tonight: mainly cloudy, Alpine low -9*C, light winds

Thursday: cloudy with possible flurries Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds

Friday: cloudy with sunny periods, Alpine high -8*C, light SW winds

Saturday: light snow, possibly 10cm by day's end. Alpine temps -10*C, Mod-strong winds

Snowpack Summary

We have very limited snowpack obs still! We do know at lower elevations there is a rain crust with around 10cm of new snow on top of it, and fairly typical early season conditions. The height of snow in the alpine and upper treeline is well above average for this time of year; we are currently 10cm shy of our record height of snow at Mt Fidelity!

Avalanche Summary

A large natural avalanche cycle ripped through Rogers Pass Sunday and Monday to size 3.5; The size and frequency of natural avalanches was an unprecedented event for November. The storm has finished and so has our the large destructive natural avalanches running to valley bottom; however human triggered large avalanches are still possible.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.