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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 27th, 2021–Nov 28th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Strong SW winds, rising freezing levels and up to 30 cm in the forecast for the next 24 hours.The response of the newly formed snowpack to these inputs is uncertain and it is recommended to approach it with caution.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Snow: 16 cm. Alpine temperature: High -1 °C. wind southwest: 2gusting to 65 km/h. FL: 2000 metres.Monday: Snow: 4 cm. Alpine temperature: Low -7 °C, High -4 °C. Wind southwest: gusting to 70 km/h. FL: 1700 metres.Tuesday: Snow: 11 cm. Alpine temperature: Low -5 °C, High -4 °C. Wind southwest: gusting to 65 km/h. FL: 1500 metres.

Snowpack Summary

Relentless SW winds continue to hammer open areas, alpine and treeline. Hard windslab developing on lee features. Frenzied winds move any new snow, overloading steep features creating spindrift and a significant loose dry problem, especially concerning over ice climbing features. ~75cm of snow settled over the Nov 5th crust/facet combo at ground.

Avalanche Summary

Poor visibility, some loose dry natural activity observed on the Parkway on Friday. Field profile at 2100m (Parkers Ridge), sheltered BLT location, sandwiched in the trees ;) 1m HS, 20-30cm fist over stronger mid-pack. Nov. 5th crust found down 75cm. Hard compression test results on facets below crust.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.