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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 4th, 2023–Dec 5th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Might be a good time to linger in your favorite coffee shop, chin-wagging about your early season exploits or future goals, instead of heading into the backcountry.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended until the storm passes through and the snowpack adjusts to the new snow load.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday a natural cycle produced results from size 1.5-2.5 in MacDonald Gully's 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, MacD West Shoulder 1 & 2, Avalanche Crests 1, 2, 3, and on the West face of Cheops.

Avalanche activity will increase on Tuesday as the storm continues.

Artillery avalanche control is planned for Tuesday afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

Over the last several days, 30-45cm of new snow covers surface hoar and a thin crust of steep solar aspects. This layer shows 'Sudden' results in snowpack tests and is easily triggered on convex rolls and in steep terrain.

There is ~110cm of snow at tree line, below average for this time of year. Many early-season hazards still exist at or just below the snow surface.

The base of the snowpack consists of weak, sugary facets in most areas.

Weather Summary

A juicy tropical flow will drop ~30cm of snow by Tuesday morning with another 20-25cm during the day and another ~10-15cm by Wednesday morning. Expect winds to be 30-50km/h from the SW and the freezing level to rise up to 2400m early Tuesday morning as a warm air mass moves through.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.