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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 10th, 2023–Dec 11th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Blue River, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat.

Continue to be conservative with terrain choice.

Storm snow and buried weak layers remain primed for human triggering at higher elevations.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural and human triggered avalanche activity has tapered off. Recent reports in nearby regions include remotely triggered avalanches on the buried surface hoar layer. Whumpfing has been observed throughout this region - this is a sure sign of instability on a buried weak layer!

Human triggered avalanches are still possible at higher elevations, where slabs sit over the weak surface hoar.

Snowpack Summary

The recent 30-50 cm of storm snow has likely been redistributed into deeper deposits on north and east facing slopes at higher elevations. This sits over a rain crust that has been observed up to 1800-2200 m throughout this region.

A concerning layer of surface hoar is now buried 60-90 cm deep. A widespread natural cycle may have destroyed this layer in steep features but it likely still lingers unaffected features.

The lower snowpack is a mix of rounded and faceted grains. A hard crust may be found near the ground.

Treeline snowpack depths are variable and generally range between 60 and 100 cm. Snowpack tapers rapidly as you move lower in elevation.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, up to 5 cm of snow possible. Southwest winds 30-40 km/h. Freezing levels return to valley bottom.

Monday

Mostly cloudy, no snowfall expected. Treeline temperatures around -7 °C. Light and variable wind.

Tuesday

Clearing skies with no snowfall expected. Southerly winds, 30-50 km/h. Treeline temperatures around -9 °C.

Tuesday

Clearing skies with no snowfall expected. Southerly winds, 60-80 km/h. Treeline temperatures around -7 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.