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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 12th, 2023–Dec 13th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Rockies, Sugarbowl, East Kakwa, Kakwa, McGregor, Pine Pass, Renshaw, Robson, Tumbler.

Make conservative terrain choices. Recent storm snow and buried weak layers may be reactive to human triggering.Reduce your exposure to avalanche terrain if the temperature is above 0°C.

Confidence

Low

Avalanche Summary

On Monday, several small dry loose natural avalanches were reported from steeper terrain features. On Sunday in Pine Pass, a natural size 1 wind slab was observed on a northeast aspect in the alpine. A second-hand report of skier-triggered size 2 was also reported. This avalanche occurred on the peak above the T-bar at Powder King. Read this MIN report for full details.

Human-triggered avalanches remain likely at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Strong winds have likely stripped available snow from south and west-facing slopes, redistributing it onto north and east-facing terrain features.

A concerning layer of surface hoar can be found around 30-50 cm deep.

A crust with sugary facets beneath it can be found just above the ground. The snowpack is still shallow for this time of year. Average snowpack depths at treeline range from 65 to 90 cm.

Weather Summary

Tuesday Night

Mainly cloudy with no precipitation. Alpine wind 50 to 100 km/h from the southwest. Treeline temperatures around -1 C with the potential for an above freezing layer to develop in the alpine and persist for 24 hours.

Wednesday

Warm and windy! Cloudy with a mix of rain and snow 5 to 10 mm. Alpine wind 60 to 100 km/h. Alpine temperatures near +1 C and freezing levels 1500-2800 m.

Thursday/ Friday

Mainly clear. Alpine wind 15 to 35 km/h. Alpine temperatures near -6 and freezing levels drop to the valley bottom.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.