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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2024–Jan 4th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Jordan, Shuswap, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, North Okanagan, Whatshan.

Evaluate snow and terrain carefully at upper elevations where both persistent and wind slab avalanches are possible.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A few small (size 1) wind slab and dry loose avalanches were triggered by riders and explosives on Tuesday. With incoming snow and wind on Thursday, small avalanches in the surface snow will likely continue. Triggering a persistent slab avalanche remains possible in upper treeline and alpine terrain.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is gradually accumulating over crusts, surface hoar, and facets that were buried a few days ago. Amounts above this interface vary from 5 to 25 cm, and reports suggest it may be bonding poorly. A crust formed by a December rain event is found roughly 60 cm deep, and a layer of surface hoar is found 60 to 100 cm deep. Where it exists, the crust makes it harder to trigger the surface hoar layer, but triggering remains a concern at higher elevations where the crust is less prominent. The lower snowpack is variable throughout the region, with basal facets possible in shallower snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with 0 to 1 cm of snow, alpine wind southwest 30 km/h, treeline temperature -5 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with 3 to 8 cm of snow, alpine wind southwest 40 km/h, treeline temperature -5 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with 3 to 8 cm overnight then partly cloudy in the afternoon, alpine wind west 30 km/h, treeline temperature -7 °C.

Saturday

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow, alpine wind south 50 km/h, treeline temperature -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.