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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 6th, 2023–Dec 7th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells, Dogtooth, East Purcell.

Conservative terrain travel is recommended, as new slabs may form over the day.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Widespread natural avalanche activity was observed over the past few days during intense stormy conditions. Storm slabs are releasing at high elevations and loose wet at lower elevations.

Looking forward, new storm slabs may form over the day on Thursday. There's also a possibility that riders could still trigger the weak layer of surface hoar described in the Snowpack Summary, which is most likely at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Around 10 to 20 cm of snow is forecast, which will accumulate onto about 20 cm of wet snow. All of this rests on a buried weak layer of feathery surface hoar and/or sugary faceted grains, which may be associated with a hard melt-freeze crust. It is possible that the recent rain destroyed this layer, but it may linger still, particularly at higher elevations.

The middle and base of the snowpack is largely weak and faceted. A hard crust may be found near the ground.

Treeline snowpack depths are variable and generally range between 30 and 80 cm. Snowpack tapers rapidly as you move lower in elevation.

Weather Summary

Wednesday Night

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow, southwest alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperature -4 °C, freezing level 1300 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow, northwest alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperature -5 °C, freezing level 1200 m.

Friday

Mostly clear skies with no precipitation, northwest alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperature -10 °C.

Saturday

Mix of sun and cloud with no precipitation, south alpine wind 10 to 20 km/h, treeline temperature -12 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the old surface.
  • Be aware of the potential for larger than expected storm slabs due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.