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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2024–Jan 7th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Esplanade, Jordan, North Selkirk, Shuswap, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, North Okanagan, Whatshan.

Don't let powder fever tempt you into large or consequential terrain features.

Winter is back! But storm snow needs time to bond and stabilize

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, natural and human-triggered avalanches were observed to size 2 within the storm snow, primarily on north and east facing slopes (lee to the southwest winds). Check out this MIN for an example.

The last reported avalanche on the buried surface hoar from early December was last Saturday. Reports suggest these layers are becoming harder to trigger.

Snowpack Summary

By Sunday, storm totals will reach 30-60 cm throughout this region. Southerly winds are expected to have redistributed this into deeper and more reactive deposits in east facing terrain features. This snow accumulates over crusts, surface hoar, and facets.

A crust formed by the early December rain event is found roughly 70 cm deep, and a layer of surface hoar is found 60 to 100 cm deep.

Where the crust is thick and strong it makes triggering the surface hoar layer less likely. Triggering remains a concern at higher elevations where the crust is less prominent.

The lower snowpack is variable throughout the region, facets found at the ground in shallow snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Cloudy with snow continuing, 5 cm expected north of Revelstoke and up to 15 cm in the Central Selkirks and Goat Range. Westerly winds ease, 20-30 km/h. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with possible sunny breaks. Flurries possible in the south. Winds from the northwest 10-20 km/h. Freezing levels remain at valley bottom, treeline temperatures drop over the day, from -8 °C to -12 °C.

Monday

Cloudy with a trace of new snow, westerly winds 20-30 km/h. Freezing levels at valley bottom, treeline temperatures -10 °C.

Tuesday

Cloudy with light to moderate snowfall beginning Monday night. Southwesterly winds 60-80 km/h. Freezing levels at valley bottom, treeline temperatures reach -8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.