Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2024–Jan 3rd, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Cool temperatures and blue skies on the Parkway today. An older but notable avalanche was observed in the alpine on a wind-loaded, steep, and unsupported glacier ramp. This and similar features on ice climbs are where you will may trigger a deep persistent slab at the moment.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Aged sz 2 noted today on Mt Athabasca, Noth Glacier below the ramp. The area is quite wind-loaded, steep, and considered unsupported glacier ice.

Snowpack Summary

No changes in the short term: extensive wind effect is seen throughout the region. Sheltered areas have an average snow depth of ~45-65 cm. The snowpack does have some vulnerabilities (old SH, windslab), but there is not a structurally stiff slab overlying to support or react to a rider in common riding locations. Very early season conditions.

Weather Summary

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Precipitation: trace. Tuesday Overnight: -9. Day: -4 °C. Light westerly winds to 10 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.

The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

Use caution when approaching steep and rocky terrian.
Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.