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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 8th, 2024–Jan 9th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Blue River, Clearwater, Premier, Clemina, North Monashee.

Ongoing snowfall and elevated winds will test the deep snowpack and create dangerous avalanche conditions on Tuesday. Stick to simple terrain that is free of overhead hazards.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 (large) deep persistent slab was triggered from a 20 m distance in the Clemina alpine on Sunday on a NE aspect. It was 70 cm deep, failing at the base of the snowpack. This underscores that basal snowpack structure remains a real problem in the region.

Many natural size 1-1.5 (small) storm slabs were observed in the Blue River area Saturday. These involved only 20-30 cm of new snow.

Moderate snowfall and elevated winds Tuesday should reinvigorate avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Roughly 15-25 cm of new snow should accumulate in the region by end of day Tuesday. It will bury somewhat wind-affected snow in exposed areas at elevation and otherwise add to about 50 cm of recent storm snow.

This older snow is settling and gradually bonding to a variety of old surfaces. Sheltered terrain where it buried surface hoar is where its bond is most suspect. It overlies a crust below about 1600 m.

Two additional surface hoar layers in the top 1.5 m of the snowpack are diminishing in importance. The deeper of the two likely has a robust crust above it below treeline.

The depth of the snowpack varies greatly throughout the region and weak basal facets are present at the base of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-15 cm of new snow. Southwest alpine wind 10 to 15 km/h, treeline temperature -11°C.

Tuesday

Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 5-15 cm of new snow, continuing again overnight. South alpine wind 10-30 km/h, easing. Treeline temperature -9°C.

Wednesday

Clearing, still mainly cloudy, with up to 10 cm of new snow from the overnight period. Northwest alpine wind 5-15 km/h. Treeline temperature -15°C.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud with a trace of new snow from overnight. Northeast alpine wind 10-25 km/h. Treeline temperature -28°C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.