Avalanche Forecast

A widespread natural cycle was observed near Fernie, to size 3 during heavy snow wind and rain on Monday night. Slabs were reactive to explosive and human triggers to size 1.5 as well.

We expect reactivity to continue as storm snow continues to accumulate, with natural avalanches most likely in areas of heavy loading with snow, wind or rain.

By Wednesday afternoon, 20–40 cm of snow is expected, adding to the previous 50–80 cm of dense/wet storm snow. Higher elevations are likely wind-affected with deep deposits on north and east facing ridgelines. Lower elevation snow will likely be moist from rain or mixed precipitation.

A layer of faceted snow or surface hoar, and a crust from mid November is buried 70-110 cm deep. Additional crusts are present in the lower snowpack, and in some areas, weak, sugary facets exist near the ground.

Snowpack depths range from 80–150 cm and thin rapidly at lower elevations. In many areas, especially below treeline, slopes lack enough snow to cover ground roughness and produce avalanches.

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy. 4 to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C. Freezing level 1200 m.

Wednesday
Cloudy. 25 to 30 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level rises from 1500-2000 m over the day.

Thursday
Mostly cloudy. 10 to 20 mm of precipitation as snow or rain at treeline. 50 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 2000 m.

Friday
Mostly cloudy. 2 to 5 cm of snow. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

• Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
• Be cautious of buried obstacles, especially below treeline.