Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2025–Jan 7th, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Expecting a warm and windy blast of weather this week.

We appreciate your contribution to making this forecast accurate and informative by sharing your adventures with the community, submit a MIN report ; every flake of snowpack information helps!

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Weekend patrols on Highway 93N reported very little avalanche activity, aside from some minor sluffing in steep, rocky terrain.

Marmot Basin continues to see full-depth releases on the weak, Deep Persistent layer up to size 2. These are being triggered with heavy loads (explosives).

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10-20cm of low-density surface snow has accumulated under prolonged calm conditions. Tuesday's expected weather system to come with moderate to strong winds.

Generally, the snowpack structure is fragile with HS values of 60 to 120cm at treeline and above. Weak, deep persistent layers, riddled with facets and depth hoar form the base of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Early this week, winds are forecasted to intensify at ridgetop, reaching its peak by Tuesday.

Tonight: Clear skies and no new precip overnight temps will -9°C, with NW winds 10-20 km/h.

Tuesday: A mix of sun and clouds; high of -1°C. Overnight ALP temps will rise with light SW winds. FZL: 1600m.

Wednesday: Isolated overnight flurries and trace precip anticipated. Alp Temps: -10°C to -7°C, light W winds.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present in the snowpack.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.