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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2014–Feb 27th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Columbia.

Recent warm temperatures have added another dimension to the puzzle. Watch out as temperatures climb, especially on solar aspects. For more insight, check out the latest Forecasters Blog.

Confidence

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

The ridge of high pressure continues to dominate conditions for the forecast period. Clear and dry conditions with colder arctic air scheduled to move back into the region. The South Columbias will see a cooling trend with arctic outflow conditions by the weekend.Wednesday night: Freezing level at valley bottom, ridge top winds light-variable.Thursday: Sunny with some cloudy periods, freezing level around 1400m, trace of precipitation, ridge top winds, light to 25 Km/h.Friday: Sunny, freezing level at valley bottom, trace of precipitation, ridge top winds from the north to 20 Km/hSaturday:  Freezing level at valley bottom, light ridge top winds from the south.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanches are still occurring up to size 3 in the forecast area, and as temperatures warm up may increase in frequency. We've had one report of a cornice failure that triggered and avalancheConditions are ideal for human triggering right now and we have received numerous reports of skier triggered avalanches, many of which have released quite deep in the snowpack. Several were remotely triggered from a considerable distance and produced large avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

A dense slab with an average thickness of 1.5 metre sits on a nasty persistent weak layer (surface hoar/facet/crust combo) that was formed during the preceding month of cold, dry weather. This weak layer is widespread at all elevations and aspects, and continues to be reactive, even in previously skied terrain. Large settlements and whumpfs have been reported at all elevations. As well, we have received numerous reports of remotely-triggered avalanches indicating the ability of failures in this weak layer to propagate over large distances. Touchy conditions are expected to remain in place longer than we're normally accustomed to. Some Katabatic (down-flowing) winds slab formation is being reported as well.In many wind loaded areas, a slab of up to 2m thick overlies the persistent weak layer creating conditions for very large avalanches. We are getting reports of surface hoar growth and near-surface facetting in protected areas above and below tree line.Weak basal facets exist in some areas, but triggering has now become unlikely. For the most part, the mid and lower snowpack are strong and well consolidated.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.