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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2020–Mar 2nd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

A weak layer rears its head as the overlying slab matures in the south of the region. Human triggered avalanches are very likely right now. Avoid sharp changes in terrain shape and keep in mind it's not always the first rider who triggers the slab.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to extremely variable snowpack conditions reported through the region.

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Flurries bringing around 5 cm new snow. Moderate to strong northwest wind, extreme at ridgetop by early morning. Freezing level 700 m.

Monday: Flurries bringing around 5 cm new snow. Moderate west wind, strong at ridgetop. Freezing level 1000 m.

Tuesday: Flurries bringing 5-10 cm new snow. Moderate west wind. Freezing level 1500 m.

Wednesday: 5-10 cm new snow. Light west wind. Freezing level 900 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday and Saturday, skier triggered persistent slab avalanches size 1-2 were triggered on the surface hoar layer on north to east aspects around treeline. A size 3 natural was observed on an east aspect in the alpine. Check out this MIN report of how the high freezing levels on Friday impacted low and mid elevations. 

Snowpack Summary

Recent wind has redistributed surface snow in the alpine and exposed treeline, loading snow into lee terrain features. Fresh wind slabs will continue to form as the wind picks up again Monday.

In the south of the region, a weak layer of widespread surface hoar sits 40-70 cm deep. On solar aspects it may sit on a sun crust which makes an excellent bed surface for avalanches. The overlying snow has been cohered into slabs by incremental loading through successive storms, wind at upper elevations and mild temperatures at lower elevations. As slab character increases, so do reactivity and size of avalanches failing on the weak layer (surface hoar). Read more about surface hoar on our forecaster blog! There is uncertainty about the distribution of this layer in the north of the region. 

The mid and lower snowpack is generally well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Stick to simple terrain or small features with limited consequence.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.