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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2020–Feb 15th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

New snow and wind are developing storm slabs. The most reactive deposits will be around ridgetops and wind-loaded areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Snow, 15-20 cm. Alpine low temperature -3 C. West-southwest wind 25-40 km/hr. Freezing level 600 m.

SATURDAY: Flurries, 5-15 cm. Alpine high temperature 0 C. Southwest wind 25 gusting to 50 km/hr. Freezing level rising to 1200 m.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Alpine high temperature -3 C. Northwest wind 15 gusting to 60 km/hr. Freezing level 600 m.

MONDAY: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine high temperature -4 C. West wind 15-25 km/hr. Freezing level 600 m.

Avalanche Summary

A small skier triggered slab avalanche on the rain crust was reported a week ago on Saturday (see this MIN report). The bond at this interface appears to be strengthening over time.

Snowpack Summary

Snowfall beginning Friday night is accumulating over a variety of wind affected surfaces in the alpine, dense, well settled snow at lower elevations, and a sun crust on solar aspects. Wind and rising temperatures through Saturday will encourage slab development within the new snow.

A thick rain crust sits 40-50 cm below the surface. The snowpack below consists of moist to wet snow and is well settled. Snowpack depths are in the range of 200-250 cm around the peaks of the North Shore mountains (1400 m), tapering quickly with elevation to almost nothing below 1000 m.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Watch for avalanche hazard to increase throughout the day.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.