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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 27th, 2021–Mar 28th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

New snow and wind continue to build deep, reactive storm slabs. Stick to simple, low angle and wind-sheltered terrain free of overhead hazard.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Saturday night: 5-15 cm new snow. Southwest wind increasing 60-80 km/h. Freezing level 1500 m. Alpine temperature -5.

Sunday: 10-20 cm new snow. Southwest wind easing through the day to 30 km/h. Freezing level dropping to 1000 m. Alpine temperature -10.

Monday: Mix of sun and cloud. 30 km/h northwest wind. Freezing level valley bottom. Alpine temperature -13.

Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud. 30 km/h northwest wind. Freezing level 1400 m. Alpine temperature -8.

Avalanche Summary

We have no reports of avalanche activity since Wednesday's storm when there were a few reports of natural and human triggered storm slab avalanches. These slabs have likely stabilized since then, but new storm slabs will be a concern above 1500 m this weekend. Wet loose avalanches will also be possible at below treeline elevations.

Snowpack Summary

With 5-20 cm of new snow forecast per 12 hour period, by Sunday afternoon you could see 30 to 60 cm of fresh snow. Accompanied by strong wind, this new snow will likely form touchy slabs. The new snow buries old stubborn slabs at upper elevations and a crust below treeline. Recent warm weather patterns have helped old persistent weak layers heal. We were previously concerned about a facet layer from the mid-February cold snap that resulted in few large cornice triggered avalanches in the first half of March (and is now 150 cm deep), but at this point the important avalanche problems just involve the upper snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Conservative terrain selection is critical, choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
  • Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.