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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 20th, 2020–Mar 21st, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Monitor and be aware of solar aspects during the day and avoid these areas when the solar radiation is strong or increasing. Conservative choices are a must, dont push it and dont go for it. The current health care system is under enough stress due to COVID19 pandemic.  

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

The clear sky showed up early on Friday and as a result, stability decreased throughout the day. Its not uncommon to have it move from mod-low in the cool mornings to Considerable-HIGH in the hot afternoons. Pay close attention to quality of freeze overnight as well as aspect you are on or under. Solar aspects are not a good place to be later in the day.

Saturday is looking to be a carbon copy of Friday but a little less cloud is forecast overnight so the quality of the freeze may be better. Freezing levels will be around 2200m with day time highs around -5C. Watch for solar radiation to decrease stability on solar aspects later in the day.

Avalanche Summary

Several loose wet avalanche up to sz 1.5 were observed on solar aspects in the late pm. Field teams were out of the forecast region by 2:30 and we expect more slides occurred following this time. 

Snowpack Summary

Crusts can be expected on solar aspects up to the peaks. Last weeks few cm of snow has settled and is overlying a temperature crust on all but true north aspects up to 2000m. The mod pack is generally well settled but the concern for the basal facets still persists. Especially in thinner snowpack areas. Most alpine areas are wind affected and the best chance for good snow will be on a sheltered north aspect. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating, travel early on exposed slopes.
  • Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a deep persistent slab.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.