Confidence
Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Saturday
Weather Forecast
Saturday: 8-12cm of snow / Moderate southwest winds / -12.0 @ 1500mSunday: Scattered cloud with trace amounts of snow / Light northerly winds / -12.0@ 1500mMonday: Trace amounts of snow with a clearing trend / Light to moderate variable winds / -23.0 @ 1500m
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches to report from the last 24 hours.
Snowpack Summary
About 4 days ago strong southwest winds transported the storm snow into reactive windslabs in the alpine and at treeline. I would suspect that these wind slabs have since gained some strength. Since then there has been little in the way of snow or wind and treeline temperatures have been between -8.0 and -12.0.There is a new rain crust below 1500 metres and an old rain crust that is buried down about a metre below the 1600 metre elevation.The mid-pack is reported to be strong, and I have not heard anyone talk about early season layers deep in the snowpack. That being said, there is still a lot of variation due to the strong winds that have accompanied most storms this winter in the region. I would continue to be suspect of thin snowpack areas.Expect new wind slab development with saturday's forecast snow and wind.
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.