Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 17th, 2024–Mar 18th, 2024

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Avoid being in or under alpine avalanche terrain.

Sun and high temperatures continue to keep avalanche danger elevated.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, widespread natural avalanches were reported up to size 2.5, loose wet and wet slabs possibly failing on the persistent weak layer formed in early February.

As freezing levels remain elevated, we expect natural avalanche activity to continue.

Snowpack Summary

As sunny days and high freezing levels continue, more of the upper snowpack will get moist or wet. This will make the snowpack more unstable, including any persistent weak layers under the most recent snow, including a layer of large feathery surface hoar observed in the Mt. Cain area.

80 to 120 cm below the snow surface, a layer of softer, faceted snow overlies a crust on all but high north aspects.

The mid and lower snowpack is generally settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Clear. Light southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around 9 °C.

Monday

Sunny. Light south ridgetop wind. Treeline high around 10 °C.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around 8 °C.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy. Light rain, snow above 1200 m. Moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around 0 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.