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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 22nd, 2024–Feb 23rd, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

Reports show this region leading the way with a sharp increase in avalanches after the storm. Use conservative slopes to assess conditions locally and make a plan to step back as winds pick up.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Wednesday's reports showed a rapidly settling 15-20 cm becoming increasingly reactive with daytime warming and yielding numerous skier-triggered avalanches to size 1 and naturals to size 2 in the MacGillivray Pass area. At least one size 2 was observed running on the persistent facet/crust layer from early February.

A report from the Hurley was less severe with dry loose releases transitioning to shooting cracks and small releases on isolated east aspects at treeline.

Snowpack Summary

15 - 20 cm of rapidly settling snow from the early part of the week has buried a variety of previous surfaces including a crust on south aspects, and all aspects at lower elevation, faceted snow and/or small surface hoar in sheltered features, and previously wind-affected surfaces in the open. Areas where wind loading has increased the depth of new snow and where larger preserved surface hoar is buried are the most concerning.

Roughly 40 - 50 cm of snow now sits above a widespread crust from late January. Weak grains like facets or more unlikely surface hoar may be found above this crust. This problematic layering remains a concern with new load above it.

Snowpack depths decrease rapidly below treeline.

Weather Summary

Thursday night

Cloudy. 15 to 20 km/h southwest alpine wind. Freezing level falling to 1300 m.

Friday

Cloudy. 15 to 25 km/h southwest alpine wind. Treeline temperature -2°C with freezing level around 1500 m.

Saturday

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing less than 5 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. 15 to 25 km/h southwest alpine wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C with freezing level to 1500 m.

Sunday

Cloudy with flurries bringing 5 - 15 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. 40-50 km/h southwest alpine winds. Treeline temperature -3 °C with freezing level to 1400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
  • Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
  • If triggered, wind slabs avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.