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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 13th, 2024–Mar 14th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Watch for changing conditions with sun and warm temperatures.

Avoid traveling in or under large, open slopes, buried weak layers remain capable of producing large avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday near Fernie, explosive avalanche control produced cornice and storm slab avalanches in the alpine.

Over the weekend, large persistent slab avalanches continued, triggered by riders and naturally by cornice falls onto the slope below. A fatal avalanche occurred in nearby Kananaskis Country on Sunday, where a similar snowpack structure exists.

Snowpack Summary

Around 30-40 cm of recent storm snow has fallen over a generally settled upper snowpack. Cornices are currently large and looming. With sunny skies and rising freezing levels, expect to see more moist or wet snow on the surface as the day goes on.

80-150 cm below the snow surface, a widespread crust with weak facets above remains a concerning layer for human triggering.

The snowpack below the crust is generally strong.

Weather Summary

Wednesday

Partly cloudy. Very localised snowfall, up to 5 cm. Light southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level falling to valley bottom, with treeline low around -5 °C.

Thursday

Partly cloudy morning, sunny afternoon. No new snow expected. Light west ridgetop wind. Freezing rising to 2000 m. Treeline high around 0 °C.

Friday

Sunny. No new snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level at valley bottom overnight, rising to 2900 m. Treeline high around 4 °C.

Saturday

Sunny. No new snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level 2900 m. Treeline high around 6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and sun exposure.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.