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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2020–Jan 10th, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

Continuing snowfall and strong southwest wind will increase the avalanche danger throughout the day. This storm will deliver 40 to 60 cm of snow even in lower elevations. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with flurries, up to 10 cm snow accumulation, light westerly wind, treeline temperature -6 C, freezing level at 500 m.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation of 30 to 50 cm, strong southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 1000 m in the late afternoon.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with snowfall, accumulation of 30 to 50 cm, moderate westerly wind, treeline temperature -3 C, freezing level at 600 m. 

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation of 20 to 35 cm, moderate westerly wind, treeline temperature -7, freezing level at 600 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday a few natural wet loose avalanches up to size 1.5 were observed.

Storm slabs were reactive to human traffic on Monday. It is likely that a natural avalanche cycle occurred Monday night as the snow switched to rain.

Snowpack Summary

This storm will bring snow totals of 40 to 60 cm by Friday evening. With the cold temperatures even lower elevations down to 500 m will receive snow. Most precipitation of the previous storm on Tuesday fell as rain below about 1500 m. 

There is uncertainty how well the new snow will bond with the old snow surface. Assess the bond of the recent snow before committing to avalanche terrain and travel conservatively.

Terrain and Travel

  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.