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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 18th, 2020–Jan 19th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

New slabs may be touchy and the warming trend has the potential of waking up the buried weak layer. Travel conservatively during this period of uncertainty.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how buried persistent weak layers will react with the forecast incoming weather.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm in the south of the region and 1 to 5 cm in the north of the region, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall in the south of the region, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine temperature -4 C, freezing level rising to 800 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, moderate to strong southwest wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 1200 m.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds with afternoon snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, light southeast wind, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level below valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity has quieted down over the past few days, but new snowfall in the southern half of the region and strong southwest wind will likely produce new slabs, with the most reactive being in exposed terrain at and above treeline.

Last weekend there were notable signs of a reactive persistent slab problem, including large whumpfs and a large snowmobile triggered avalanche in the neighbouring Clemina area (see the MIN report). The surface hoar layer responsible for this problem has been harder to find since then, but could still potentially produce large avalanches in certain sheltered slopes around treeline. The likelihood of triggering this layer could increase as the air temperature rises on Sunday and Monday.

Snowpack Summary

In the south of the region, around 10 to 20 cm of new snow is forecast, which will form fresh storm slabs. Across the entire region, strong southwest wind is forecast, meaning that wind slabs are likely present on exposed slopes at and above treeline.

The main concern over the past couple of weeks has been a layer of surface hoar buried 60-120 cm beneath the surface. Although an avalanche has not been reported on this layer in the past five days, the likelihood of triggering it may increase as the air temperature warms.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.