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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2020–Feb 1st, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Widespread avalanches certain.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

With the forecasted storm, avalanche hazard is expected to reach "extreme" by early Saturday morning. All winter permit areas are closed.

Weather Forecast

A subtropical storm has arrived in the form of an atmospheric river. Expect periods of snow with 25cm of accumulation above 1700m, and rain below. Ridge winds SW 25km/h with gust to 75km/h. Alpine high -2.

The storm continues through the weekend with 25cm of snow for Saturday and 15cm for Sunday. Extreme winds will be present with gust to 95km/h

Snowpack Summary

Another 10cm of new snow fell overnight with moderate S winds, adding to existing storm slabs in cross loaded terrain and immediate lees. The mid and lower snowpack is well settled, all of our persistent weak layers are currently dormant; however, they will be tested on Friday and Saturday if we receive the 75mm of forecasted precipitation. 

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred late in the evening on Wednesday January 29th. In the backcountry, Cheops North #4 (STS) ran to the valley bottom. In the highway corridor, numerous size 2.0-3.0 avalanches ran onto their fans.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.