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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2020–Jan 6th, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

The recent snow may become more reactive as the next storm approaches on Monday, bringing warm air and a switch from snow to rain. Expect rapidly changing snowpack conditions as the weather changes. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, moderate west wind, treeline temperature -5 C, freezing level 600 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 15 to 20 cm, moderate to strong west wind, treeline temperature -1 C, freezing level 700 m rising to 1500 m over the day.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with rain, accumulation 60 to 80 mm, strong southwest wind, treeline temperature 2 C, freezing level 1500 m.

WEDNESDAY: Morning snowfall then clearing, accumulation 10 cm, light to moderate northwest wind, treeline temperature -5 C, freezing level 500 m.

Avalanche Summary

The recent storm snow was reported to have produced small avalanches on Sunday. As the next storm arrives, avalanche activity is expected to spike when the freezing level rises and snow switches to rain. This switch will rapidly destabilize the snow and increase the likelihood of wet avalanches below the snow line and storm slab avalanches above the snow line.

Snowpack Summary

Around 40 to 60 cm of snow fell above around 800 m on Sunday. This snow overlies a melt-freeze crust up to about 1500 m or hard wind-affected surfaces at higher elevations. The next storm on Monday afternoon will drop another 15 to 20 cm of snow before the freezing level rapidly increases on Monday afternoon to 1500 m. The rise in freezing and switch from snow to rain will rapidly moisten the snow surface late Monday.

Terrain and Travel

  • The first few hours of rain will likely be the most dangerous period.
  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.