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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2020–Jan 30th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Storm slabs will likely remain sensitive to human triggering at upper elevations Thursday. Watch for deep pockets of wind loaded snow in alpine lees.

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Clear skies Light to moderate west to southwest winds. Freezing level 1100 m.

Thursday: Mix of sun and cloud, flurries starting in the afternoon bringing around 5 cm new snow, light rain below 1000 m. Southwest winds building to strong. Freezing level 1000-1500 m.

Friday: 80-100 mm of rain to ridgetop . Extreme southwest winds. Freezing level 2500 m.

Saturday: 60-100 mm water equivalent in precipitation overnight, mostly falling as rain to ridgetop, turning to snow in the early morning above 500 m. Moderate northwest wind. Freezing level 500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observations since Saturday when small pockets of loose wet snow (less than size 1) were reactive to skier traffic. 

Snowpack Summary

30-40 cm of new snow above 1100 m. Drier snow at upper elevations has been redistributed by strong southwest wind. A rain crust up to 1400 m sits 30-60 cm below the surface, elevation dependent. The snowpack is strong and settled from earlier rain, and now 200-300 cm deep around the peaks of the north shore mountains. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.